HEADLINES
– Temps above average for at least the next week.
– Humidity is also back, and will go up a notch tomorrow.
– Next shower and storm chances: Tuesday.
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Surface high pressure remains to our east with a light east to east- southeasterly flow present at times. For the most part, surface MSLP gradients are too weak to promote any kind of wind. Most observations as of 2am are showing calm conditions. Combined with mostly clear skies above, radiational cooling has been efficient with fog already being reported in spots. Continued expansion of fog appears likely given ideal conditions. Some locally dense fog is possible by morning. However, a weak vort max has allowed for some clouds across our west and northwest, which may limit further fog development in these areas. Cloud cover should gradually spread eastward for the remainder of the night. Gradual clearing is likely after sunrise as the vort max weakens. High pressure should gradually shift southward along the eastern seaboard today, allowing our weak surface flow to become more southerly. Ridge-building aloft over the Great Lakes will support a generally subsident atmosphere over Indiana. With increasing heights, we`ll likely see a warmer day today compared to previous days. Readings in the upper 80s to near 90 will be common. Additionally, increasing humidity will make it feel more oppressive than it has. Precip chances look low, but non-zero. While subsidence and dry mid- level air should largely prevent convective development, there may be enough instability for an isolated shower somewhere within our CWA. Chances of this at any one location are quite low, less than 10 percent. Will leave mentionable PoPs out of the forecast for now given how isolated potential shower activity appears to be. Guidance shows greater convective chances over northern Illinois late in the day today. There`s a low chance that this activity, should it develop, propagates southward into northern parts of our area overnight into Friday. Some factors that favor this include a 15-25kt southwesterly low-level jet impinging into NW Indiana after about 03z. This jet weakens considerably south of the Lafayette area. Additionally, about 20kt of northwesterly shear are indicated in RAP forecast soundings. This may be sufficient for cold pool shear balance, which would allow any upstream convective system to propagate southward during the night. Any southward-moving MCS would likely weaken quickly as effects of the LLJ diminish. All of the above is contingent on upstream convection forming a cold pool. Should this occur, then the probability of southward propagation into our CWA increases dramatically. Guidance is hinting at this but is notoriously bad with depicting cold pool formation and subsequent evolution. Convective trends upstream will need to be monitored closely tonight into Friday. Regardless, severe weather does not appear likely given weak shear and the likelihood for any approaching system to quickly become outflow dominant. && .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)... Issued at 306 AM EDT Thu Aug 7 2025 A return to hot and humid conditions appears likely early in the long term. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing ridge- building over the Great Lakes through the weekend. Some forecast uncertainty exists on Friday, however, due to upstream convective potential (see short term section for details). There`s a low probability of a convective complex forming upstream and propagating south into central Indiana by Friday morning. Should this occur, then temperatures would likely be a bit lower than current guidance given rain-cooled air and lingering cloud cover. A trough looks to approach early next week along with an attendant cold front. Unfortunately this also means showers and thunderstorms chances may persist well into the new week. Some members of guidance take a while to bring the front through...with it potentially lingering nearby into Wednesday. Flow aloft is weak and so we`re not expecting any organized severe threat. Our primary storm hazard may once again be heavy rain and localized flooding. Given uncertainty regarding the timing of the cold front, we will maintain chance PoPs through Wednesday. Temperatures will depend on the timing and strength of the front as well. A slower and weaker front will allow hot/humid weather to persist while the opposite is true of a stronger/faster front.
INDY SEVEN DAY FORECAST
Today: Partly to mostly sunny. High 88.
Tonight: Mostly clear. Low 68.
Friday: Mostly sunny, hot and humid. High 89.
Friday Night: Mostly clear. Low 71.
Saturday: Mostly sunny. High 90.
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Low 71.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. High 90.
Sunday Night: Mostly clear. Low 72.
Monday: Partly sunny. High 91.
Monday Night: Partly cloudy. Low 73.
Tuesday: Partly to mostly cloudy, with scattered showers and storms. High 91.
Tuesday Night: Scattered showers and storms. Low 73.

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