HEADLINES
– Some showers and storms will be around again today, mainly in the morning.
– Very warm to hot and humid conditions continue through Tuesday, with cooler air arriving afterward.
– Additional showers and storms will be around with a frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday
TODAY’S MAP
NWS TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
Convection across the southwestern forecast area will continue to push south and out of the forecast area in a few hours. Convection across northern Illinois and northern Indiana will also continue to move southeast. Uncertainty is relatively high on how much of this will be able to sustain itself as instability has been used up by prior convection. Will continue to monitor closely, but for now feel that the bulk of this convection will remain across the northeast half of the area. Will have highest PoPs there with lower PoPs elsewhere. Today... Scattered convection will persist into this morning, especially across the northeast half of the area. Will keep chance PoPs there with lower PoPs elsewhere. Convection should then diminish by late morning. Clouds will thin into the afternoon, allowing more instability to build. Boundaries from the earlier convection may remain across the area, and models are showing a synoptic surface boundary in the area as well. This will be enough to keep some low PoPs around all areas this afternoon. Severe parameters look low enough that severe storms are not expected, but gusty winds and heavy rain remain possible with any storm. High temperatures will be impacted by residual cloud cover and morning convection. Will continue to go cooler than guidance, with highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s expected. Tonight... Believe that any afternoon convection will be pretty much done by 00Z, so will keep with a dry forecast. The upper high should nudge in to keep any convection away from the area during the night. Lows will be in the middle 60s to lower 70s. && .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)... Issued at 253 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Monday... The upper ridge extending across the area should be enough to keep the area dry on Monday. Very warm to hot and humid conditions will persist thanks to the upper ridge, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Tuesday and Wednesday... An upper trough will push the upper ridge to the west of central Indiana. This north to northwest flow will allow a cold front to move into the area, bringing chances for showers and thunderstorms. There is continued uncertainty with the specifics. Hurricane Erin could influence the upper pattern, which could slow down the progression of the system. This would keep rain chances around longer. Will have PoPs through Wednesday for at least parts of the area. Tuesday will remain hot with highs around 90 to the lower 90s, but Wednesday will be cooler thanks to the front with highs in the 80s. Thursday and beyond... High pressure, and the brief return of the upper ridge, will help keep the area dry through the end of the work week. Temperatures will rebound into the middle and upper 80s by Friday. Another upper trough will push the ridge west again for next weekend and will bring another cold front into the area. Moisture looks limited so will keep a dry forecast. Questions remain on the timing of the front and the extent of the cooler air, but highs on Sunday could cool into the lower 80s. Cooler than normal temperatures may persist into next week.
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